1st post-poll results on determinants in Buhari-Jonathan

We conducted a post-election survey to determine the prevailing determinants in the recently concluded March 28th presidential elections.

We collected responses starting from the 30th of March, 2015 with 63%, 512 responses obtained on the first day. 91% or 738 responses were collected within the first 30 days of the poll. Total responses were 809.

The poll was distributed through several online for a including ProudNigerian.com; NewsRescue.com, ENDS.ng and through emails and facebook account sharing.

Respondents were asked to answer the following questions:

1. Did you vote in the March 28th Presidential elections? 2. If no, why did you not vote? 3. Who did you vote for? 4. What state are you from? 5. What is your ethnicity? 6. What influenced your vote the most? 7. What is your religion? 8. Do you have any other comments, questions, or concerns?

Answers were multiple choices, open ended, select all and comment box type.

RESULTS

84%, 589 voted in the elections. Many of those who did not voted cited “no voters card” and being out of the country as the major reasons for not voting in 116 text responses.

555 reported voting for the winner, Muhammadu Buhari and 61 reported voting for outgoing president Goodluck Jonathan. Tunde Anifowose-Kelani got 2 votes while the rest contestants got 1 or 0.

209 responded being Hausa, 83 Fulani, 47 Igbo, 180 Yoruba, 6 Ijaw and 37 Kanuri. Other ethnicities were filled as 143 comments.

Development was the greatest influence on voting choice with 269 selections; next was Progress with 225; Economy: 203; Unity 145; Terror 101. Least were Religion and Ethnicity with 24 and 13 votes respectively.

465 reported being Muslim and 250 or 34% Christian.

 RESULTS BY ETHNICITY SNIPPET

Of the particular ethnicities of interest in this snippet, of those who identified as Igbos, out of 47 respondents, 16 voted for the incumbent while 22 reported voting for the winner, Muhammadu Buhari. This number was in disparity with the results from the polls which some have alleged were rigged.

One Igbo reported voting for Tunde Anifowose.

40 Igbos identified as being Christians and 3 as Muslims.

The factors that influenced the Igbo votes for Goodlcuk Jonathan were: Development 8, Economy 4, Ethnicity 3, Religion 2, Progress 3 and Education 1.

 The factors that determined Igbo vote for Muhammadu Buhari were Development 9, Economy 6, Progress 5, Unity 7, Terror 2.

Comment: It was interesting to note that Unity and Progress were high among Igbo voters for Muhammadu Buhari while Ethnicity and Religion were high among voters for Jonathan and absent among voters for Buhari.

Of the Hausa voters, the results were almost completely homogenous. Only 4 of 209 voters voted for Goodluck Jonathan. 1 voted for Martins Onovo. All the rest who voted did so for Muhammadu Buhari.

Of the 209, only 6 voted based on Religion and 3 based on Ethnicity, the rest voted mainly for Development, Progress, Unity, Economy and Terror.

From the results, there was a 2.5 times greater odds of voting based on religion and ethnicity among the Igbos when compared to the Hausas.

Of the Yorubas15 voted for Goodluck Jonathan and 134 reported voting for Muhammadu Buhari. The pattern was similar.

All but one Fulani who voted for Chekwas Okorie, voted for winner Muhammadu Buhari. The reasons for voting were similar: Development, Unity, Progress, Economy, Terror.

Of the 83 Fulani respondents, only 2 voted based on Ethnicity and 1 on Religion.

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